Predicting Wildland Fire Policy Support

Theoretically grounded empirical models can improve our understanding of public support for (or opposition to) wildland fire policies. Based on the specificity principle (general to specific versus specific to specific variable associations), we empirically examined the influence of three sets causal influences (general socio-demographics, general situational indicators, specific psychological indicators) on two specific agency actions (prescribed fire and mechanical thinning) and two specific homeowner actions (defensible space and firewise construction). Data were obtained from a mailed survey of Colorado wildland-urban interface residents (n = 532). Logistic regression analyses indicated that the predictor variables had different patterns of influence on agency and homeowner actions. Consistent with the specificity principle, the specific psychological measures were more predictive of specific agency / homeowner actions than either the general socio-demographic or the general situational variables. Recognizing these differential causal influences can improve policy development, situated communications, and local community involvement strategies.